SpaceX IPO: Historic Opportunity or Valuation Test?

SpaceX IPO: A Market Signal Worth Watching, Not Chasing 

SpaceX’s expected IPO could become one of the most important market events of 2026. The company is reportedly targeting an offering price of $135 per share, implying a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion and making it the largest IPO in history if completed as currently expected. For investors, the significance goes beyond SpaceX itself. This offering may become a live test of how much public markets are willing to pay for scale, scarcity, founder-led innovation and long-term growth potential. (Reuters, 2026) 

The investment case is easy to understand. SpaceX sits at the intersection of several major themes: space infrastructure, satellite connectivity, defense-adjacent technology, and artificial intelligence. Starlink gives the company a recurring revenue business that public market investors can better understand than rocket launches alone. At the same time, Reuters has reported that SpaceX generated $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025 while posting a $4.94 billion net loss, which is a useful reminder that this remains a capital-intensive growth story. (Reuters, 2026) 

For many Milestone clients, this story is also relevant because some portfolios already have small, indirect exposure to SpaceX through our private equity fund allocations. Importantly, that exposure was acquired well before the IPO through private market investments, not at the public offering valuation. That distinction matters. There is a difference between owning a small position that was acquired earlier at lower private placement prices and deciding whether to buy into the company at a higher public market valuation. 

A successful IPO could also matter for the broader market. It would suggest that public markets are once again open to very large private companies after a quieter period for IPOs. That could encourage other private market leaders to list, creating liquidity for employees, early investors, and private equity or venture funds. MSCI has also noted that mega-cap IPOs can affect benchmark composition, sector weights and index-related flows, especially when companies are large enough to enter major indexes shortly after listing. (MSCI, 2026) 

Investors should still be careful not to confuse a great company with a great entry point. Morningstar has reportedly estimated SpaceX’s fair value at around $780 billion, well below the expected IPO valuation. That gap does not mean the stock cannot rise after listing. In fact, with a small initial float, strong investor demand and possible index-related buying, the stock could trade meaningfully higher for a period. But short-term momentum and long-term value are not the same thing. (Morningstar, 2026) 

The Meta IPO offers a useful comparison, but not a perfect one. Facebook came public in 2012 as a founder-led technology company with enormous scale and high expectations. The business eventually became one of the great public market success stories, but the IPO itself was difficult. Shares struggled after listing as investors questioned valuation, mobile monetization and the supply of stock coming to market. Reuters also documented trading issues and lock-up related selling pressure around the IPO. (Reuters, 2012) 

The lesson from Meta is not that high-profile IPOs should be avoided. The lesson is that even exceptional businesses can become difficult investments when valuation, investor enthusiasm and market mechanics get stretched at the same time. SpaceX is also different in important ways. Meta was an advertising platform with high-margin potential and relatively low capital intensity. SpaceX operates rockets, satellites, launch systems, connectivity infrastructure, and potential AI infrastructure. That makes the opportunity unique, but also harder to value. 

At Milestone, we view the SpaceX IPO as a market signal worth watching closely, not a reason to chase excitement. It may tell us a great deal about current liquidity, investor sentiment, and the next phase of innovation-led investing. But as always, a disciplined portfolio should balance opportunity with valuation of risk, position sizing and time horizon. 

 

References 

Reuters. “SpaceX sets $135 price for blockbuster IPO, upending Wall Street convention.” June 2026. 

Reuters. “SpaceX’s lofty valuation set to put ‘Elon premium’ to test.” June 2026. 

Reuters. “Facebook lessons: what not to do when planning an IPO.” May 2012. 

Reuters. “Facebook shares fall as lock-up period expires.” October 2012. 

MSCI. “How Megacap IPOs in 2026 Could Reshape Global Benchmarks.” 2026. 

Morningstar. “SpaceX: What Investors Need to Know About Its Enormous Upcoming IPO.” 2026. 

SEC. “Facebook Registration Statement on Form S-1.” 2012. 

 

©2026 Milestone Wealth Management Ltd. All rights reserved.

Opinions and estimates are written as of the date of this report and may change without notice. Any commentaries, reports or other content are provided for your information only and are not considered investment advice. Readers should not act on this information without first consulting Milestone, their investment advisor, tax advisor, financial planner or lawyer. This communication is intended for Canadian residents only and does not constitute as an offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not allowed.